Global Data Pod
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Global Data Pod
Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.
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Global Data Pod Weekender: Just how symmetric are risks, really?
A case is made that the US floor is low but the ceiling is high, while the range for the rest of the world is narrower. A counter argument is that the...
Global Data Pod Weekender: If data falls in the woods…
The US shutdown leaves us with limited visibility at an important juncture in the global outlook. There are reasons to believe that the factors of lif...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Strong but shaky growth
The global expansion is now tracking a strong 3Q outturn, led by a robust increase in the US. The contrast of this strength with a near-stall in glob...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Food and energy add to sticky core
Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the latest CPI reports, the key drivers shaping the outlook, and implications f...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: The growth effects of AI capex
Abiel Reinhart joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the recent surge in tech-related business investment, its impact on US growth, and what it might mean...
Global Data Pod Weekender: A riddle wrapped in a mystery
Despite resilience through 3Q, we maintain that drags are building and still see recession odds at 40%. Heightened labor market risk was enough to get...
Global Data Pod Weekender: And if not now, when?
The debate builds over the resilience of the expansion, the health of the labor market, and the durability of the consumers. At the same time, questio...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Weak payrolls, more Fed
Although this week’s business surveys sent an upbeat growth signal, the message from labor market reports in the US and elsewhere dominates risk asses...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Resilience and discontent
Despite a softening US labor market and a downshift in global industry and trade, the global economy looks resilient with the US tracking above-trend...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Additional renovations on C-street
Global industry is stalling at midyear and we look for the soft patch to continue as the trade war bites and global capex growth softens. The Fed look...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: The shifting nature of China’s global inflation drag
Nora Szentivanyi and Tingting Ge discuss their latest research on China’s evolving role in global goods disinflation, the impact of higher US tariffs...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Downside risks re-emerge
First-half resilience and robust risk markets have challenged our forecast for a sharp deceleration in 2H25 and tempered risks of recession. This week...
Global Data Pod: EM capital flows discontented we remain
Jahangir Aziz and Katie Marney discuss sluggish EM capital flows against a backdrop of trade uncertainty, risks to global growth, elevated treasury yi...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Fake it till you make it
As trade (hand-shake) deals get made, it is looking increasingly likely that the effective tariff rate is going to settle very close to the 22% rate i...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Inflation, politics, and central banking
The latest data keep the inflation and growth backdrop challenging for central banks. Politics are an added wrinkle for the Fed.
Speaker...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: June 2025
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson to discuss key takeaways from the June CPI reports and key drivers shaping the outlook. Global core infla...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Let me count the ways
Our global forecast looks for a sharp slowing in growth in the coming months, concentrated in the US. Despite this contrasting with the more benign ou...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Taking stock at midyear
We published our midyear outlook this week, highlighting expectations for a significant stagflationary shift in 2H25 and our limited confidence in for...
Global Data Pod Weekender: You can get there from here
The first half is tracking roughly in line with our trend-like outlook just ahead of the US election last year. However, 2H25 should deliver a very di...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Gauging the coming slowdown
The drags on global growth related to the trade war are building but there remains considerable uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of the com...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor: Tariff impact delayed but not denied
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss key takeaways from the May CPI reports and the outlook for the rest o...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Identification in the time of front-loading
The global economy looks to be posting trend-like growth in 1H25. How much of this is underlying resilience in a healthy expansion and how much is tra...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Not so fast on the off-ramp
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss their view that hopes of a court-led off-ramp to the US war on trade are overstated. They maintain tha...
Global Data Pod Weekender: A whole lotta shakin’ goin’ on
Our forecasts are in flux as a result of uncertainty around the transmission of the trade war shock and the potential for more policy surprises. That...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Short-term pain? No way
The increased risks of recession and signs of significant disruptions in the goods market have likely played a role in getting the US to back off its...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Threat assessment
The hard activity data continue to show resilient growth in the first four months of the year. We maintain our recession call owing to 1) front-loadin...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Transitioning
Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the activity data continues to show resilience, an encouraging development that will help weather the coming U...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor
Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation monitor and the impact of tariffs on inflation in the US an...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Short-term pain, long-term stain
The hard data continue to highlight strength but it increasingly looks like we are reaching peak front-loading. The survey data are falling faster and...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: US-China: cost advantage and mutual dependence
China economists Haibin Zhu and TingTing Ge join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the impact of a 100%+ US tariff rate on China's cost competitiveness on t...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Turn of the screw
Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the goods sector activity boomed through 1Q but the signal to take is far less clear, particularly as sentimen...
Global Data Pod Weekender: When elephants fight
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton and Jahangir Aziz to discuss the post-Liberation Day back-peddling that has led some to breathe a sigh of relief....
Global Data Pod Weekender: That’s gonna leave a mark
A dramatic shift from the Trump administration toward less business-friendly policies leads us to revise up our already above-consensus recession odds...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Debating the R word
Our baseline forecast incorporates sustained expansion but recession risks have become elevated – to a 40% probability – on concerns that aggressive U...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor
Nora Szentivanyi joins Bruce Kasman to discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation Monitor and how the incoming data and tariff news are sh...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Front-loading
Risks to the global expansion are elevated in the face of a broadening trade war, but incoming news highlights a still underlying resilient expansion....
Global Data Pod Weekender: Fear is the expansion killer
The data through January tell a story of a moderating expansion, but the ongoing US policy turmoil is weighing on February sentiment readings. Absent...
Global Data Pod Weekender: Trump sees his shadow, 4 more weeks of tariff exemptions
A tumultuous week in the US trade war leaves the world only with modestly higher tariffs on China but more downside risk. While tariffs on USMCA-compl...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Sticky inflation meets tariffs
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Michael Hanson to discuss the key takeaways from our latest Global Inflation Monitor and inflation risks...
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Some Unpleasant Tariff Arithmetic
Michael Hanson and Murat Tasci, of the US Economics team, discuss their latest Research Note on the challenges for meeting the many disparate objectiv...